Górnik return to the card, this time as our pick. The team that beat the favourite we filed them against is now the underdog we back.

One match today. Ferencváros host Górnik Zabrze at the Groupama Arena — Europa League third qualifying round, first leg. There is a history here. On July 21 we filed on Górnik at 15.00 against Fenerbahçe, in the seventh of the heavy-favourite trades that lost 0-7. Górnik lost that ninety minutes but won the tie — they eliminated Fenerbahçe and advanced. Now they are back on the card, this time as the away side we are backing at a very different price. The market has Ferencváros at 1.72, 58% implied. Górnik at 4.90 on Betfair implies 20.4%. The independent models grade Górnik between 22% and 26%. The exchange sits below the model on the away side — the third consecutive pick at this setup after Örgryte paid and Farul drew.

Górnik at 4.90 is a different trade from the 15.00 we filed on them two weeks ago in every way that matters. That pick was a heavy-favourite compression against Fenerbahçe at implied 6.7% — the category that has lost every time. This is a moderate favouritism setup at implied 20.4%, in the category the run has actually won from. Two structural factors run with the trade. First, the price: Betfair at 4.90 sits below the 22-to-26% the models grade Górnik, a positive edge on a side that just proved it can beat a stronger favourite than Ferencváros over two legs. Second, the leg dynamic: this is the first leg, played at Ferencváros' home. A favourite in the first leg of a European tie tends to manage the aggregate rather than chase the ninety-minute margin — the exact dynamic that ran against us on the Noah-Zimbru return leg, now running with us. Ferencváros winning 2-1 or 1-1 with a Górnik away goal keeps the tie balanced for the second leg in Poland; a 3-0 blowout is not the shape first legs at this level usually take. Ferencváros are the better side and the rightful favourite. Górnik at 4.90 pays if the first-leg management this fixture invites gives the side that just knocked out Fenerbahçe the room to find a goal.

Górnik's second appearance on the run, first as a moderate-price away pick rather than a heavy-favourite long shot. The heavy-favourite version lost. This version is filed in the winning category, at a price below the model, with a first-leg dynamic that favours the underdog's path. The ledger came out of Monday's Farul draw at plus-zero-point-four-five units. Górnik at 4.90 would move it to plus-four-point-three-five. Ferencváros will probably win the ninety minutes. What the price pays on is a first leg where the favourite has reason to pace, against a side that has already shown it can live with better teams than the one in front of it tonight.