Jonathan David scored twice, Atlético beat Osasuna 4–0, and the run of short lays is eight from eight. Today we lay Real Betis at 1.69: €690 at risk to win €980, break-even 41.3%.

Jonathan David scored twice, Atlético beat Osasuna 4–0, and the lay lost the full €420 well before the final whistle made it emphatic. Sixteen positions closed: five wins, eleven losses, minus €3,080 on €13,690 of risk, a return of minus twenty-two and a half per cent. The count on short lays now reads eight from eight — every position taken at 1.84 or shorter has lost, the shortest of them at 1.23 and the two most recent at 1.42 and 1.60. This book flagged the multiplication three days ago and it is worth updating rather than repeating: eight independent short-priced favourites all holding, at the market’s own probabilities, comes out to roughly one run in forty-five. That number keeps sliding in the same direction, and honesty requires saying that a coincidence this stubborn starts to look like it might not be one — while also saying that sixteen positions is nowhere near enough to prove it, and that a book built to find edges by publishing every result, win or lose, will occasionally produce a losing streak that looks patterned by chance alone.

Today the position is a lay again, back in the middle of the price range: Real Betis at 1.69, €690 at risk to win €980. Betis are third with twelve points from five and have not been beaten at home this season, built on two 1–0 wins — over Real Sociedad and Real Madrid — and two clean sheets. Break-even is 41.3%. Strip the margin off the back column — 1.69 Betis, 3.85 the draw, 6.4 Getafe, an overround of 100.9% — and the fair line reads 58.7% / 25.8% / 15.5%. The two results that pay us add to 40.7%. We need 41.3%. Six tenths of a point against us, roughly €10 of negative expectation per €1,000. Getafe have scored three league goals all season and have yet to score away from home at all, which argues for a low-scoring afternoon and therefore, on the numbers, more for a Betis win by the odd goal than for the draw or the upset that pay us.

That is the honest problem with tonight’s position, stated plainly rather than buried in the arithmetic. A team that cannot score is a team that helps whoever is already winning stay ahead; it does not obviously help us. Betis have won five of their last six across all competitions under Pellegrini and are the form side in this fixture by any reading. The counter, such as it is: Getafe under Bordalás have taken the last four meetings personally, winning 2–0 in March, and a side that scores rarely can still draw 0–0 as easily as it loses 1–0 — Getafe have five missing players against Betis’s two doubts, which cuts the other way. We are six tenths of a point short of the arithmetic working, on a book that has now lost eleven of sixteen and needs no dressing up. It is what it is: minus €3,080, and every position published as it landed.