Venezia 2, Fiorentina 4 — two sides with no points between them produced six goals, and the draw lost the whole €1,000. Today we lay Milan at 2.22, and above the pivot the geometry turns: €1,220 at risk to win €980.

Venezia 2, Fiorentina 4. The position rested on two sides with nothing from three matches, and the two of them produced six goals in an afternoon. That is the straight draw’s risk in a single line: it does not lose narrowly. The stake goes in full. This book has now filed two of them — Udinese–Lazio at 3.20 and this one at 3.45 — for minus €2,000 on €2,000 of risk. Eleven positions closed, four wins, seven losses, minus €1,820 on €10,230, a return of minus eighteen per cent. The sequence deserves stating rather than framing away: the ledger was up €2,940 after three days and has lost money on seven of the eight days since. Nothing has been changed in response, because nothing about eleven positions justifies changing anything. That cuts both ways, and it is the same sentence that would be here if the number were positive.

Today the book lays Milan at the Olimpico, and the position sits above the pivot for the first time since 6 September. At 2.22 the liability is €1,220 against a win of €980: we are favourites to take the position — the market gives the two results that pay us 54.8% — and every loss costs a quarter more than a win returns. Break-even is 55.5%, and the draw alone is worth almost thirty per cent of the fair line, which on a lay pays in full. Strip the margin off the back column — 3.95 Lazio, 3.35 the draw, 2.2 Milan, an overround of 100.6% — and the fair prices read 25.2% / 29.7% / 45.2%. We need 55.5%. The market gives 54.8%. Six tenths of a point against us, roughly €14 of negative expectation per €1,000. The case for the price being wrong is the table itself. Lazio have won all three of their matches; Milan have won two and drawn one; and the exchange still makes Milan the favourite, away from home. Lazio beat Milan twice at the Olimpico last season, in the league and in the cup, and have taken three of the last four meetings in all competitions. Gattuso, who played 335 Serie A matches for Milan, is on the other bench. The market is pricing squads rather than the season so far. That is usually the right thing to do and occasionally the expensive one.

The honest counter is the Lazio injury list. They are without Rovella, Cataldi and Dele-Bashiru in midfield and Patric and Marusic behind them — most of the spine of the side that won those three matches — while Milan are missing Gabbia and little else. Three wins from three says less than it appears to when a team has not yet been asked a hard question, and the market has spent the summer watching Milan assemble the better squad. Then there is the shape of the position: at 2.22 a loss costs 1.24 times what a win pays, and only two positions on this book have carried a worse ratio, the lays at 2.36 and 2.24. Both of those won, which is what a sample of two is worth and no more. We are six tenths of a point short of the arithmetic working. Eleven positions and minus €1,820 is still not a sample — but it is now a number big enough to say out loud rather than bury.