01
UEFA Nations League A · Group 1 · Matchday 4
Italy vs Turkey
◆ Lay Italy — paid on the draw or an upset
1.44
69.4% implied
risk €440 · win €980
Today’s card · 1 position · No. 005 · 2026-10-05
Norway led in Porto, Portugal came back to win 2–1, and the book has lost two in a row. Today we lay Italy in Bologna at 1.44: €440 at risk to win €980, break-even 31.0%.
Four positions, two wins and two losses, plus €420 on €2,530 of risk. Kristoffer Ajer put Norway ahead, João Cancelo levelled before the break and Gonçalo Ramos won it ten minutes from time. Tonight Italy host Turkey at the Dall’Ara at 1.44 — the shortest price of the new book. Turkey have no points and travel without Arda Güler, Barış Alper Yılmaz, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız. We need the draw or a Turkish win 31.0% of the time; the market, margin removed, gives them 30.5%.
§The Card
§The Commentary
For thirty-five minutes in Porto the lay was winning. Kristoffer Ajer put Norway in front, and for most of the first half the position looked paid. João Cancelo equalised five minutes later, Gonçalo Ramos scored the winner on eighty, and Francisco Conceição’s red card in the closing minutes came too late to matter. Portugal 2, Norway 1: the favourite held, and the position lost its €720. Four positions: two wins, two losses, plus €420 on €2,530 of risk. The two wins paid €980 each; the two losses cost €820 and €720. That is the arithmetic of laying at prices near 1.80 — the losses are almost as large as the wins, and a run of two takes most of the cushion with it.
Today the position is a lay of Italy at 1.44: €440 at risk to win €980. This is the short end of the range and the friendliest shape the book has offered — a win pays more than twice what a loss costs — which is why break-even falls to 31.0%. Italy lost 2–0 to Belgium, won 4–1 in Turkey and drew 1–1 in Paris; four points, third in the group. Turkey have lost all three, scoring once. Strip the margin off the back column — 1.43 Italy, 5.4 the draw, 8.2 Turkey, an overround of 100.6% — and the fair line reads 69.5% / 18.4% / 12.1%. The two results that pay us add to 30.5%. We need 31.0%. Half a point against us, about €7 of negative expectation. The crack, such as it is, is Italy’s own record in the group: one win in three, and a 2–0 defeat to Belgium in which they did not score.
The case against the lay is overwhelming on paper. Italy won the reverse fixture 4–1 eight days ago, and Turkey arrive without four of their best players — Güler and Yılmaz suspended, Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız injured. A short price is not a mistake when the underdog is this depleted, and 69% for Italy is not obviously generous. What the position offers is the shape: €440 to lose against €980 to win. Two losses in a row prove nothing about the method, and a win tonight would prove nothing either. The ledger will show it as it lands.