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UEFA Nations League A · Group 4 · Matchday 4
Portugal vs Norway
◆ Lay Portugal — paid on the draw or an upset
1.72
58.1% implied
risk €720 · win €980
Today’s card · 1 position · No. 004 · 2026-10-04
Croatia 0, England 7: the first loss of the new book, and it was not close. Today we lay Portugal in Porto at 1.72: €720 at risk to win €980, break-even 42.4%.
Three positions, two wins and one loss, plus €1,140 on €1,810 of risk. England were four up at half-time in Rijeka and finished with seven, two each for Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka. Tonight Portugal, nine points from nine, host Norway at the Dragão at 1.72. Norway have lost their last two and are without the suspended Torbjørn Heggem. We need the draw or a Norwegian win 42.4% of the time; the market, margin removed, gives them 41.8%.
§The Card
§The Commentary
There is no reading of last night that helps the lay. Harry Kane scored after eight minutes, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka made it four by half-time, and Kane, Saka and Morgan Rogers added three more after the break. Croatia 0, England 7. The position lost its full €820, the largest liability the new book has carried, and the price at 1.82 did not come close to describing the gap between the two sides on the night. Three positions: two wins, one loss, plus €1,140 on €1,810 of risk. The loss took back most of what one win pays, which is exactly the trade this book makes at prices near 1.80.
Today the position is a lay of Portugal at 1.72: €720 at risk to win €980, break-even 42.4%. Portugal have won all three — 1–0 against Wales, 2–1 in Norway, 4–2 in Denmark — and lead the group on nine points. Norway beat Denmark, then lost at home to Portugal and in Cardiff, and Torbjørn Heggem is suspended after his red card against Wales. Strip the margin off the back column — 1.69 Portugal, 4.7 the draw, 4.7 Norway, an overround of 101.7% — and the fair line reads 58.2% / 20.9% / 20.9%. The two results that pay us add to 41.8%. We need 42.4%. Six tenths of a point against us, about €9 of negative expectation. The crack is the shape of Portugal’s wins: they have conceded in both away matches, three goals in two games. Norway, with Erling Haaland, scored in each of their three matches.
The case against the lay is the table. Portugal have nine points and are at home; Norway have lost two in a row and are a defender short. Cristiano Ronaldo is reported to have left the squad after a falling-out with Jorge Jesus, which the market has already priced, if it matters at all. At 1.72 the exchange asks Portugal to win a little under three times in five, and the evidence does not call that generous. Six tenths of a point short, again. After a 7–0, the temptation is to read the next price as a chance to get it back. It is not; it is one more position at €1,000, published as it lands.