Three from three, and the first favourite this book has sold who is not playing at home. Como are 1.84 at Marassi. The crowd is against them and so are we.

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo finished level at the Reale Arena and the lay was paid €980 against €950 of liability. Three positions, three wins: an upset, then a draw, then another draw. The book stands at plus €2,940 across €3,250 of risk, a return of ninety per cent, and a record of three and nothing. Every one of those sentences is true and none of them means very much. Three coin flips landing the same way happens one time in eight.

Tonight is the first fixture of this book where the favourite is the away side. Como travel to Marassi and the exchange has them at 1.84 to lay — €840 at risk to collect €980, the cheapest ticket the new ledger has bought. Take the margin off the board: Genoa 17.8%, the draw 27.7%, Como 54.5%. Our break-even needs Como to win less than 53.9% and the market says 54.5%. Six tenths of a point in the wrong direction, the commission again, and about €12 of negative expectation per €1,000 laid.

There is one feature here the previous three did not have, and it is the shape of the market rather than the size of the edge. Nearly twenty-eight per cent of the probability sits on the draw — the highest share this book has filed — and another eighteen on a home side that only has to win once at its own ground. Two doors, both reasonably wide, against a favourite whose price assumes it walks through a hostile stadium and takes three points. The Ferraris is not a neutral venue and Como are being asked to treat it like one. That is the argument. It is not a mispricing and the ledger will not pretend it is: three wins in a row are what variance does, and the first loss will arrive without warning.