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UEFA Nations League A · Group 3 · Matchday 3
Croatia vs England
◆ Lay England — paid on the draw or an upset
1.82
54.9% implied
risk €820 · win €980
Today’s card · 1 position · No. 003 · 2026-10-03
France 1, Italy 1: the draw pays the lay in full, and the book is two from two. Today we lay England in Rijeka at 1.82: €820 at risk to win €980, break-even 45.6%.
Two positions, two wins, plus €1,960 on €990 of risk. Michael Olise put France ahead with a free kick, Alessandro Bastoni levelled from a French mistake, and France finished with ten after Dayot Upamecano was sent off. Tonight England go to Croatia at 1.82 on the exchange. A longer price than the first two, and a bigger liability. We need the draw or a Croatian win 45.6% of the time; the market, margin removed, gives them 45.0%.
§The Card
§The Commentary
France were 1.50 at home and did not win. Michael Olise scored from a free kick ten minutes into the second half, Alessandro Bastoni equalised thirteen minutes later after France tried to play out from the back and gave the ball away, and Dayot Upamecano’s red card left the hosts holding on with ten. France 1, Italy 1. This is the result the method is built around and the one most readers still file as a near miss: on a lay of the favourite the draw is a full win, settled at the same €980 as an upset. Two positions, two wins — one upset, one draw — plus €1,960 on €990 of risk.
Today the position is a lay of England at 1.82: €820 at risk to win €980. The price is longer than the first two and the shape is closer to even — a win still pays more than a loss costs, but only by €160 — so break-even rises to 45.6%. England lost 3–2 to Spain and beat the Czech Republic 2–0; Croatia beat the Czechs 2–1 and lost 4–1 to Spain. Strip the margin off the back column — 4.9 Croatia, 4.0 the draw, 1.8 England, an overround of 101.0% — and the fair line reads 20.2% / 24.8% / 55.0%. The two results that pay us add to 45.0%. We need 45.6%. Six tenths of a point against us, about €10 of negative expectation on the position. The crack is the venue: England’s last visit to Croatia, a Nations League match in 2018, finished goalless, and Croatia beat the same Czech side England did. Croatia are without Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić, which weakens the back line; it is the main reason the price is not longer.
The case against the lay is plain enough. England have beaten Croatia three times in the last five meetings, and a side that scored twice against Spain does not need many chances. Croatia conceded four in their own Spain match. At 1.82 the market gives England a little more than one match in two, which is a modest claim for the stronger team, and on the numbers it is about right. Two wins in two is not evidence of anything, and neither will tonight be. The liability is the largest of the new book so far, and if England win it takes back €820 of the €1,960 — that will be published as it lands.