The new book opened with the thing the old one never once produced. An outright upset. Cremonese won 2-0 at the Tardini.

Cremonese won 2-0 at the Tardini and Parma are out of the cup. The lay was paid €980 against €1,360 of liability — the book opens at plus €980 on one position, a return on risk of 72%. One match is one match and the number will not stay there. But the manner is worth a line: across the ten positions of the previous book and this one, twelve settled trades in total, this is the first that has ever been settled by an outright upset rather than a draw. The half of the position the ledger had been carrying without ever collecting finally paid.

Today is the same competition and nearly the same shape. Sassuolo host Frosinone in the round of 32, and the exchange has the home side at 1.94 to lay: €940 at risk to collect €980. Take the margin out of the board — 1.93 Sassuolo, 3.95 the draw, 4.3 Frosinone — and the fair line reads 51.6% / 25.2% / 23.2%. Our break-even needs Sassuolo to win less than 51.0% of the time and the market says 51.6%. Six tenths of a point in the wrong direction, which is the commission, and there is no other way to describe today’s number honestly.

The interesting feature is where 1.94 sits. At exactly 1.98 the liability equals the €980 a win pays and the trade stops being lopsided; below it we risk less than we win, above it more. At 1.94 we are four hundredths on the good side of that line — €940 against €980 — which is as close to a straight coin flip as this book will ever get: roughly even money, on roughly even odds, with the exchange taking two per cent for holding the stakes. Yesterday returned 72% on risk and today would return 104% of what it puts up. Neither number means anything yet. Twelve settled positions is not a sample; it is a start.